Intelligence Analysis and the Art of Wargaming

Wargaming can be an effective training mechanism and tool to analyse risk – including an assessment of threat and harm – and aid in strategic decision-making. However, its powers have not yet been sufficiently harnessed to the benefit of intelligence analysis, especially in the area of law enforcement and criminal intelligence. Intelligence analysis – the product and process – is challenging. From the outset, the process of answering an intelligence question can be marred by the accessibility and availability of excessive, insufficient or deceptive information. It is further complicated by the analyst’s mindset; and inherent bias that exists in information, as well as those that the analyst brings. This paper proposes that wargaming can be added to the suite of analytic tools that an analyst has available to them. It shows that wargaming can be both an effective tool to aid in the training of intelligence practitioners, as well as assist in the production of rigorous and contestable analytic argumentation. In this way, wargaming has the potential to provide analysts with some clarity in the complex environments within which they work.