Niche, distribution and global change

Evidences are accumulating that biodiversity is facing the effects of global change. The most influential drivers of change in ecosystems are land-use change, alien species invasions and climate change impacts. Accurate projections of species’ responses to these changes are needed to propose mitigation measures to slow down the on- going erosion of biodiversity. Niche-based models (NBM) currently represent one of the only tools for such projections. However, their application in the context of global changes relies on restrictive assumptions, calling for cautious interpretations. In this thesis, I aim to assess the effectiveness and shortcomings of niche-based models for the study of global change impacts on biodiversity though the investigation of specific unsolved limitations and suggestion of new approaches.