Measuring Instability of price and production of Pulses in Bangladesh

This study assessed the production and price instability of pulses in Bangladesh. The study analyzed the data in different ways to capture the different views of instability by the different participants. Grass pea was constituted highest seasonal price instability among the all viewers and pigeon pea was in the lowest ranking. Average model, random walk model, linear trend model, exponential trend model and ARIMA model were applied to determine the production and long run price instability. Average viewers had a feeling of more instability than others for both the cases. ARIMA type models showed the lowest price instability for all kinds of pulses. In case of production instability, trend viewers felt more instability than random walk viewers but in case of price instability, trend viewers felt less instability than naïve viewers. Chickpea was found in the first position of production instability in the overall ranking because of low level of disease resistant power. On the other hand, grass pea was in the first ranking for the long run price instability because of more volatility in the demand side. Pigeon pea was positioned in the last ranking for all the cases.